Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s **highest temperature** at Jiangbei Airport on 3 August is the settlement event here, and the crowd is currently pricing a **0% YES** outcome despite the city’s usual August heat. That looks disconnected from the climatology: published August guides put Chongqing’s typical daytime high around **34°C**, with 3 August specifically shown at **34.7°C** in one monthly forecast table, while broader climate pages also place August highs in the **33–34°C** zone.[2][9][16][19]

That historical backdrop matters because this contract resolves to the day’s *peak* reading, not the average. In a city known for hot, humid summers, a zero-implied probability would normally require a materially cooler-than-normal day or a market that is simply mispriced relative to weather norms. There are no sportsbook-style lines in the supplied results to anchor a cross-market comparison, so the only visible divergence is between the prediction market’s flat pricing and the multi-source consensus that August in Chongqing is typically hot enough to reach the mid-30s Celsius.[2][7][9][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-range forecast, convective rain risk, and whether cloud cover or thunderstorms suppress the afternoon maximum before the **12:00Z** settlement cutoff. Chongqing’s August climate is also rain-prone, which can clip highs even in a hot regime, and the resolution will depend specifically on the Wunderground history page for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport rather than a citywide headline forecast.[1][19] As of now, the market is effectively asking whether the airport station can stay below the temperature band implied by that seasonal norm, which is the key dependency to watch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.