Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 70% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala | 61% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Set 1 Winner | 56% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Set 2 Winner | 55% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Match O/U 21.5 | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Match O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Match O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 38% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 25% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 70% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala. This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Alexandra Eala in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for August 2, 2026 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jessi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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