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Clacton by-election: 2nd place

Five-platform snapshot of "Clacton by-election: 2nd place" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Count Binface 91% Person J 50% Person K 50% Person L 50% Volume: $451K Liquidity: $602K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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Clacton by-election: 2nd place

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 91% 9% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 91% 9% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Count Binface91%
Person J50%
Person K50%
Person L50%
Person M50%
Person N50%
Person O50%
Person P50%
Person Q50%
Person R50%
Person S50%
Person T50%
Person U50%
Person V50%
Person W50%
Person X50%
Person Y50%
Person Z50%
Person AA50%
Person AB50%
Person AC50%
Person AD50%
Person AE50%
Person AF50%
Person AG50%
Person AH50%
Person AI50%
Person AJ50%
Person AK50%
Person AL50%
Person AM50%
Person AN50%
Person AO50%
Person AP50%
Person AQ50%
Person AR50%
Other50%
Laurence Fox4%
Nigel Farage2%
William Clouston2%
Giles Watling0%
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul0%
Matthew Bensilum0%
Natasha Osben0%
Tony Mack0%
Andrew Pemberton0%
Piers Corbyn0%
Adham Alkhatip0%
Rees Cowne0%
Kai Stephens0%
Luke Worley0%
John Stevens0%
Pamela Walford0%

Market context

Clacton by-election: 2nd place — current market-implied probability: 91%. A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve accordin…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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