Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s Incheon International Airport station will record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that highest reading. The crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, yet Polymarket data shows 31°C as the frontrunner at 76% probability, with 32°C or higher at 22% [1]. This stark divergence between the binary “YES” probability and the granular temperature distribution suggests the contract’s binary framing may be misaligned with how traders interpret the underlying weather outcome.

Historical context frames this probability: Seoul experienced its hottest July since 1908 in 2025, with a heatwave persisting until at least 16 July [2]. Comparable cases show mid-July peaks in Seoul often reach 30–33°C, making 31°C a statistically plausible outcome. The 0% binary probability likely reflects a specific threshold condition in the “YES” definition rather than a belief that temperatures will be cool, highlighting how cross-platform odds can diverge when contract structures differ.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Incheon station, as the market resolves exclusively on that source’s highest recorded temperature for the day [1]. No formal announcements are scheduled, but the continuation of the 2025 heatwave pattern suggests meteorological dependencies remain the primary catalyst. Analyst consensus on Polymarket leans toward 31°C, contrasting with the binary market’s 0% implied probability, underscoring a meaningful gap between sportsbook-style binary lines and prediction-market temperature distributions.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.