Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York’s hottest reading on 26 July is a straightforward *weather range* event, but the market is pricing it like a fairly warm summer afternoon rather than an extreme heat spike. The Polymarket contract shows the heaviest interest in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with 84–85°F around 41% and 82–83°F around 36%, while the crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific **YES** outcome on the platform suggests there is no single overwhelmingly priced “call” on the exact band the market is asking about.[1]

That matters because July temperature distributions at LaGuardia often cluster tightly unless a strong heat dome or sharp sea-breeze difference develops, so the historical read is usually less about one blockbuster number and more about where the day’s peak lands relative to the airport’s microclimate. Recent comparison data for New York on 26 July 2026 show model and aggregator estimates ranging from the mid-20s to low-30s Celsius, which is consistent with an upper-70s to upper-80s Fahrenheit finish rather than a runaway outlier.[2][3] In that context, a very low implied probability for a “YES” range can reflect either a narrow contract definition or traders favouring neighbouring bands rather than a directional view on heat itself.[1]

The key catalysts are the same ones that usually move late-summer temperature markets: the strength of any heat advisory, the timing of afternoon heating, cloud cover, and whether onshore flow off the harbour keeps LaGuardia cooler than inland parts of the city. A credible recent weather warning would matter more than generic citywide summer commentary, because this market settles on the *highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station* and not the official Central Park reading, so small station-level differences can decide the outcome.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.