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What price will Bitcoin hit in July?

Comparison of odds and platforms for "What price will Bitcoin hit in July?" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi vs Polymarket.

↓ 60,000 100% ↑ 62,500 77% ↓ 57,500 74% ↑ 65,000 52% Volume: $305K Liquidity: $701K Closes: 1 Aug 2026
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What price will Bitcoin hit in July?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
↓ 60,000100%
↑ 62,50077%
↓ 57,50074%
↑ 65,00052%
↓ 55,00044%
↑ 67,50033%
↓ 52,50027%
↑ 70,00016%
↓ 50,00016%
↓ 47,50010%
↑ 72,5006%
↓ 45,0005%
↓ 42,5003%
↓ 40,0002%
↑ 75,0002%
↑ 82,5001%
↑ 80,0001%
↓ 37,5001%
↑ 77,5001%
↑ 100,0000%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of what price will bitcoin hit in july?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. What price will Bitcoin hit in July?

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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