Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s hottest reading on 3 August will be set by the William P. Hobby Airport station, and the current 0% YES implied probability looks out of line with the city’s normal early-August heat profile. Houston’s August average high is around the upper 80s Fahrenheit, but it routinely reaches the mid-90s, and several Houston forecasts for 3 August point to highs near 96–100°F with mostly sunny conditions and only limited storm risk.[14][15][6][18][7] On that basis, the market is pricing as if the observed daily maximum will miss the contract’s relevant temperature bands altogether, which is a materially different stance from the weather outlook.

The historical comparison matters because Houston’s distribution is not anchored to a single “typical” afternoon; even a modestly cooler forecast can still leave the day well inside common resolution ranges. Recent local coverage has described highs flirting with 100°F through the week, while other forecasts show a high-90s peak with low precipitation probabilities, suggesting the more likely risk is whether cloud cover or a late shower trims the top end rather than whether the station posts a hot day at all.[15][12][6] That makes the gap between a 0% market price and mainstream weather expectations notable, especially if the contract resolves on an airport observation rather than a city-wide average.

The key catalysts are the official National Weather Service updates, the day-of hourly evolution, and whether any afternoon thunderstorms develop close to Hobby Airport during the settlement window.[7][18][3] Traders should watch for any forecast revisions that shift the expected high by a few degrees, because that can move the reading between adjacent bands even when the broader weather story stays the same.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.