Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s maximum temperature at Haneda Airport today will be set by the day’s warmest hourly reading, with this contract resolving against the Wunderground history page for RJTT. The crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** suggests the market is treating a qualifying high as either extremely unlikely or already priced as effectively impossible, which is a notable divergence from the underlying climatology: July in Tokyo typically produces highs around **30°C** and lows near **25°C**, with the monthly forecast also pointing to temperatures around **30.7°C** for the period[1].

For context, the key historical frame is that this is not a winter-temperature contract but a midsummer one, so the relevant question is whether Tokyo Haneda can print a value that lands in the market’s target range before the settlement cut-off. That makes the outcome highly sensitive to a single daily peak rather than the whole-day average, and short-lived heat spikes matter more than the broader monthly mean[1]. In cross-platform terms, a **0%** prediction-market price would normally imply either no active two-sided liquidity or an exceptionally low consensus on the specified range; if sportsbook-style lines exist elsewhere, traders should compare them against the same ceiling temperature definition rather than against citywide forecasts.

The main catalysts are the live weather path over Tokyo, especially afternoon heating, cloud cover, and rainfall, because July in the city is also a wet month with more than **24 rainy days** and over **172 mm** of expected precipitation, which can suppress daytime highs[1]. The most useful external checks are the airport-specific hourly forecast and any last-minute changes in synoptic conditions; because the contract settles on the highest recorded temperature at Haneda Airport Station, even a brief warm window can matter more than the headline daily forecast.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.