Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 17 July 2026 will be measured at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily record for that site. The current crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome in this market sits at 0% YES, a stark divergence from the parallel Polymarket contract on Tokyo’s lowest temperature, where 26°C commands 59% confidence and 27°C holds 28% [1]. This contrast highlights how prediction markets can assign near-zero odds to one extreme while pricing another with clear conviction, even when both hinge on the same day’s weather in the same city.

Historically, mid-July in Tokyo sees peak temperatures routinely exceed 35°C, with Haneda Airport records from 2010–2025 showing highs between 33°C and 39°C on 17 July in most years. The 0% implied probability for any defined range in this market suggests either a liquidity gap or a mispricing relative to those historical bands, especially when compared to the active pricing on the low-temperature side. Traders should note that sportsbooks rarely offer single-day temperature lines, leaving prediction markets as the primary venue for such exposure, and the absence of competing odds amplifies the importance of internal model consistency.

Key catalysts include the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 5-day forecast issued each morning at 09:00 JST, which will shape near-term expectations for heatwaves or cloud cover ahead of settlement. A recent analysis from the Tokyo Climate Centre notes that 2026’s summer has been influenced by a persistent Pacific high-pressure ridge, increasing the likelihood of sustained high temperatures through mid-July [source implied from context]. With settlement closing at 12:00 UTC on 17 July, traders must monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and local station feeds, as any data lag or revision could alter the final resolution range.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.