Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature on 4 August will be set by the day’s actual maximum at the station, and the market is currently pricing **0% YES** despite the fact that Tokyo summer conditions commonly support highs in the low 30s Celsius. Japan Meteorological Agency daily data already show Haneda at **35.6°C** on 1 August and **33.0°C** on 2 August, which underlines how quickly this contract can move if the afternoon peak comes in hotter than early-morning expectations suggest.[1]

For context, the broader August climate backdrop is hot rather than mild: long-run Tokyo guidance typically points to daytime highs around **31°C**, with some forecasts for early August sitting in the **82–90°F** range, or roughly **28–32°C**.[2][8][14] That makes a zero-implied outcome on a Haneda high-temperature contract look aggressive relative to seasonal norms, although runway-adjacent coastal readings can come in below inland Tokyo sites on some days; the key comparison is with actual station data rather than citywide averages.[1][8][12]

The main catalysts are the same factors that usually drive intraday temperature extremes: morning cloud cover, the timing of sunshine after dawn, wind direction off Tokyo Bay, and any late-day sea-breeze moderation before the settlement cut-off. Traders should also watch official weather updates and airport-station observations through the afternoon, because a forecast range can still miss the day’s peak if skies clear faster than expected or if heat builds more strongly than models indicated.[1][2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.