Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is currently experiencing strong winds and rain on Sunday 12 July, with the Hongqiao station recording a high of 30°C and light rain expected through the day [7]. The market asks whether the highest temperature at Pudong International Airport will fall into a specific range, yet the crowd-implied probability for the current YES outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders believe the day’s conditions will not meet the threshold [1].

Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with Pudong averaging a high of 87°F (30.6°C) and frequently exceeding 30°C, often reaching 35°C during sunny spells [1][5]. Comparable days in recent years show highs of 31–32°C on 9–10 July, but today’s overcast, rainy conditions at nearby stations indicate a likely suppression of peak temperatures [2][3]. The 0% probability aligns with this immediate meteorological reality, as wet, windy weather typically prevents temperatures from climbing to the upper extremes seen in dry July heatwaves.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Pudong station, the official resolution source, as cloud cover and precipitation intensity are the primary catalysts limiting temperature rise [1]. With rain and gusty winds already reported across Shanghai, the immediate forecast suggests no significant heat spike before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC [7]. No further announcements or schedules are pending; the outcome depends entirely on the observed hourly maximum recorded by the station before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.