Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5? | 32% |
| Match Winner | 13% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 4? | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 4 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: bilibili gaming vs hanwha life esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Bilibili Gaming and Hanwha Life Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 4:00AM E…
Methodology
We track LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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