Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 11 July 2026 will be recorded at the Pudong International Airport station, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily peak in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows July highs at this site typically exceed 30°C, often reaching 35°C or more, with July 2025 hitting 38°C [3][6]. The current 0% implied probability for any specific range is therefore inconsistent with the region’s established heat profile, suggesting a pricing error or misaligned contract definition rather than a genuine forecast of cool conditions.

Comparable cases frame the odds: in recent years, Shanghai’s mid-July peaks have clustered between 34°C and 38°C, with only rare dips below 30°C [3][6]. Sportsbooks and prediction markets on similar heat contracts usually assign meaningful probability to ranges above 35°C, diverging sharply from this market’s zero-implied stance. Analyst consensus on Shanghai’s July heat would not support a 0% probability for any plausible high-temperature band, indicating a meaningful gap between this line and cross-platform expectations.

Traders should monitor the hourly forecast from Yr and Meteoblue for Thursday and Friday, which show highs near 30°C with possible thunderstorms that could suppress peaks [4][10]. The key catalyst is whether heavy precipitation forecast for Thursday persists into Saturday, as rain and cloud cover can cap temperatures below the typical 35°C threshold [4]. No official announcements are expected, but real-time Wunderground updates on Saturday will determine settlement, making intraday weather shifts the primary dependency for this contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.