Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The FIFA World Cup quarter-final between Norway and England kicks off on 11 July 2026 at Miami Stadium, with the market focused on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation. This specific outcome currently carries a crowd-implied probability of 7% YES, reflecting the difficulty of pinning down a precise result in a high-stakes knockout match where defensive caution often prevails.

Historically, Norway and England have met 12 times, with Norway winning only two and failing to score in their last four encounters, a trend that suggests a low-scoring affair is more likely than a goal-heavy one [1]. While Norway recently pulled off a major upset against Brazil to reach this stage [7], their offensive record against England remains weak, framing the current 7% probability as a plausible but risky bet on an exact score rather than a near-certainty.

Traders should monitor England’s squad announcements and any late fitness updates on key attackers like Harry Kane, who scored in the dramatic win over Mexico [5], as these factors directly influence scoring potential. ESPN’s live odds show England favoured at -115 with a total goals line hovering near 2.5, indicating bookmakers expect a tight contest [2]. Any divergence between these sportsbook lines and the prediction-market implied probability could signal a valuable edge for cross-platform arbitrage before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Norway vs. England - Exact Score across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.