Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest reading at Pudong airport on 1 August will almost certainly land in the **upper-20s to low-30s Celsius**, with the market’s 0% yes probability implying the crowd sees an extreme heat outcome as very unlikely. That sits comfortably inside the climatological pattern for early August: Shanghai’s August average high is around **31°C/32°C**, while one August guide puts 1 August’s average high at **30.7°C** and another monthly forecast shows daily highs commonly ranging from **82°F to 92°F** (about **28°C to 33°C**).[1][2][5]

Comparables suggest the more relevant question is whether the day briefly clips the low-30s rather than whether it gets hot at all. Shanghai’s all-time record is **41°C**, but that is a city extreme rather than an everyday benchmark, and recent coverage has shown the metropolis can still sit under prolonged heat-wave conditions when the Yangtze River delta is locked in a hot pattern.[8][7] Against that backdrop, a zero-priced contract looks notably below the historical centre of gravity, so any sportsbook or analyst line implying a modest chance of a heat spike would still be meaningfully above the prediction-market price.

For traders, the key drivers are the same ones that move airport temperatures anywhere: the strength of the subtropical ridge, cloud cover, rain bands, and the timing of any typhoon influence over the East China coast. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Shanghai shows a broad **82°F to 92°F** daily range, while other August climatology sources cluster around the low-30s Celsius, so a late change in the synoptic setup is what matters most for whether the airport’s daily high pushes into the market’s upper bins.[2][14][5] Because settlement uses the **Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station** reading on Wunderground, airport-specific conditions can diverge from citywide headlines, especially if sea breeze, showers, or thunderstorm outflows develop close to the observation window.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.