Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's thermal range across the Korean peninsula's primary weather observation point.

July temperatures in Seoul routinely exceed 30°C, with the month ranking among the year's hottest. Historical records show that daily highs in late July typically fall between 28–33°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 35°C in recent decades. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally low confidence in specific temperature brackets or technical issues with market construction rather than genuine uncertainty about whether Seoul will be warm on that date. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show wider probability distributions across temperature bands, indicating fragmentation in how traders are assessing the resolution mechanics.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the East Asian summer monsoon pattern, which determines whether tropical moisture or continental high-pressure systems dominate the Korean peninsula in late July. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically releases extended forecasts 10 days in advance; traders should monitor their mid-July bulletins for anomaly signals. Recent climate data from June 2026 onwards will establish whether the season is tracking warmer or cooler than the 30-year average, directly influencing the probability distribution across temperature bands.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.