Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the **highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 24 July 2026**, which the market resolves from Wunderground’s daily history page, not from a citywide Seoul reading. That distinction matters because airport stations can run a little cooler than the urban core in some setups, and a contract priced at **0% YES** implies the crowd is treating the chance of landing in the relevant temperature band as negligible even though the broader Seoul area is forecast to be warm.

Comparable weather guides point to a normal late-July Seoul pattern of highs around **30°C** with frequent rain, while the latest public forecasts are still clustered near the high 20s to low 30s rather than extreme heat. The Met Office currently shows **28°C and sunny** for Seoul, and a Korean news report from 23 July said the capital area should see rain under a stationary front while much of the country remains hot, with daytime highs of **29–38°C** in some regions. That mix usually keeps upside on the airport reading limited unless the rain band clears faster than expected or the warm sector expands north.

For traders, the main catalysts are the timing and placement of rain over northern Incheon and the Seoul metro, plus any intraday shift in cloud cover, humidity and winds that could suppress the station high. The Chosun report highlighted **20–60 mm** of rain for northern Incheon and Gyeonggi and possible thunderstorms, which would argue against a sharp temperature spike; however, if showers arrive later than forecast, the airport could still briefly edge into a higher band before noon UTC. With the settlement window ending at **12:00 UTC**, the contract is most sensitive to the late-morning local forecast and any update from the Korea Meteorological Administration or airport observations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.