Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s highest temperature on 1 August will be set by a single afternoon reading before the market closes at noon UTC, so the key question is whether the day stays in the city’s usual early-August band or pushes into a warmer outlier. That matters because the crowd-implied **1% YES** is far below what the summer climatology suggests for a normal August day in Munich, where average highs are around 74–76°F and typical daytime peaks sit in the low-to-mid 20s °C. [1][5][9]

History points to a wide but still seasonal spread: Munich’s August highs usually cluster around 23–25°C, while recorded extremes can run much hotter, with sources citing a record August high of 38°C and long-run August maximums occasionally reaching the high 30s. [9][10][13] By comparison, the current market price is closer to a narrow-tail bet than a broad seasonal forecast, implying traders think an unusually hot reading is very unlikely; that is consistent with the fact that Munich’s August averages are warm but not typically extreme, and late-day thunderstorms can also cap the upside after a hot spell. [5][13][14]

The main catalysts are weather-model updates, not scheduled announcements: traders should watch forecast revisions for Munich Airport, especially any signal of a short-lived hot plume or convective storm risk that could knock the top temperature down before noon UTC. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Munich shows daily highs ranging from 69°F to 81°F, which supports a warm-but-not-disruptive baseline rather than a strong heat extreme. [1] If nearby forecasts begin converging on the upper end of that range, the market can reprice quickly; if cloud cover or showers are expected early, the chance of a higher maximum before settlement becomes even thinner. [1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.