Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 24 July 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official meteorological station for the capital. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity on this particular contract.

Historical data from the airport station shows July temperatures in Mexico City typically peak between 25°C and 28°C, with occasional excursions to 29–30°C during particularly warm spells. The city's high altitude (2,250 metres) moderates extreme heat compared to lower-elevation Mexican regions. July falls within the rainy season, which can suppress afternoon highs through cloud cover and convective activity. Over the past decade, the highest July temperatures at the airport have rarely exceeded 29°C, providing a baseline for evaluating the probability distribution across available ranges.

The primary catalyst remains the broader atmospheric pattern developing across Mexico in late July 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) and track any heat dome or ridge positioning over central Mexico in the weeks preceding the settlement date. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if established by mid-2026, could influence moisture availability and cloud formation. The 0% probability reading suggests either that the market has settled on a narrow expected range with high confidence, or that trading volume remains insufficient to establish meaningful odds across all temperature brackets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.