Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Metro Manila is tracking toward its typical early-July heat profile, with afternoon highs historically clustering between 31°C and 35°C, making a record-breaking spike unlikely [7]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome aligns with this baseline, as the all-time regional record of 38.8°C was set in April 2024, not during the wetter, cloudier July season [1]. Even the Philippines’ absolute peak of 42.2°C occurred in Tuguegarao in April and May, far outside Manila’s July thermal envelope [4][9]. Recent data confirms this pattern: the highest temperature in Manila over the past 15 days was 35.0°C (94.8°F) on 3 July 2026, while yesterday’s maximum was only 31.1°C (88°F) [2][3].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s live hourly feed for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, the designated resolution source [1]. Key catalysts include sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall, which typically suppress July highs in Manila, and any anomalous heatwave announcements from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. No major weather events are currently forecast to disrupt the norm, reinforcing the market’s zero-probability stance. On cross-platform comparison, sportsbooks rarely offer temperature contracts, but prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi show consistent alignment here: both imply near-certain resolution below extreme thresholds, with no meaningful divergence from analyst consensus on July thermal behaviour in the capital [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.