Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s William P. Hobby Airport is expected to record a high in the mid-90s Fahrenheit on 10 July 2026, driven by persistent high pressure and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico[1]. This forecast aligns with long-term July averages for the region, where daily highs typically reach 93°F, with extremes often climbing into the mid-90s under heat-dome conditions[3][4]. Historical data shows that temperatures exceeding 100°F remain rare in Houston during early July, with none recorded in 2026 so far, reinforcing the market’s current 0% implied probability for any outcome below 90°F[9].

The frontrunner outcome on Polymarket is 90–91°F at 40%, closely followed by 92–93°F at 33%, indicating strong trader consensus around the mid-90s range[1]. This contrasts with Robinhood’s climate market, which frames the same event without displaying divergent odds, suggesting a potential cross-platform discrepancy in liquidity or pricing efficiency[2]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground’s hourly records for KHOU, as any shift in cloud cover or evening rain could alter the peak temperature[1][8]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, meaning intraday fluctuations will directly determine resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Houston on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.