Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 28 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This single daily maximum will determine which temperature band resolves as YES, with settlement contingent on the Observatory's official "Daily Extract" publication.

Hong Kong's July temperatures cluster tightly around seasonal norms. Historical data shows daily maxima in late July typically range from 32°C to 34°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 35°C or above during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting the market's full range of temperature options before committing capital, or treating this as a placeholder contract pending clarification on specific resolution bands. Without published odds from traditional sportsbooks on weather outcomes, cross-platform comparison remains limited to prediction-market consensus alone.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 July 2026, but actual resolution depends on the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule for daily climate data, which typically follows within days of the observation date. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website for any operational disruptions or delays that might affect data availability. Regional weather patterns—particularly the timing and intensity of the southwest monsoon and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea—will be the primary driver of whether temperatures track toward the lower or upper end of the seasonal range.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.