Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is set to record its peak heat for 12 July 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory scheduled to publish the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius by the settlement deadline. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, despite July typically being the hottest month in the region.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a potential mispricing rather than a certainty of cool conditions. July in Hong Kong routinely sees highs between 31°C and 35°C, with the city recording its hottest day of 2026 so far at 34.6°C earlier this week [1]. Long-term rankings show July 2007 held the highest monthly mean maximum at 32.9°C, yet individual days frequently breach 35°C, as seen in a 1963 record of 35.5°C that was recently broken by a 36.1°C spike [3][5]. This volatility means a 0% line ignores the frequent occurrence of extreme heat events that define the month.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract for the finalised “Absolute Daily Max” figure, which is the sole resolution source [6]. The immediate catalyst is the weather forecast for 12 July, which currently predicts a hot day with temperatures ranging from 29°C to 34°C and a probability of significant rain [9]. Any divergence between this forecast and the actual recorded maximum will drive the settlement, while the lack of movement on prediction markets contrasts with the 45.5% implied probability seen on similar contracts for the preceding day, 11 July [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.