Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong faces its peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory set to record the city’s highest temperature for the day. The market asks whether this peak will fall into a specific Celsius range, yet the crowd-implied probability for the current YES outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders expect the temperature to land outside the offered bracket. This stark divergence contrasts with sportsbook-style weather lines that often price July highs in Hong Kong between 32°C and 35°C, reflecting the city’s consistent trend of record-breaking summer heat.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as potentially mispriced. July 2024 was an exceptionally hot month, with a daily mean of 30.8°C and a record minimum of 29.2°C on 6 July [3]. Similarly, July 2022 became the hottest month since records began in 1884, breaking the previous record from 2020 [2]. In July 2023, the city broke 11 heat records, cementing a pattern of escalating extremes [1]. Given this trajectory, a 0% implied probability for a standard high-temperature range appears to ignore the consistent upward shift in July maxima.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract for the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once finalized, as the market cannot resolve until this data is published [9]. The forecast for July 2026 already indicates daily highs ranging from 30°C to 34°C (86°F to 94°F), with an average high of 32°C (89°F) [4]. Any deviation from this range due to tropical systems or urban heat amplification could shift odds rapidly, making the official release the primary catalyst for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.