Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 1 August 2026 will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s published daily extract, with the market resolving on the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for that date. The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** is far below what a plain reading of Hong Kong’s August climate suggests, because the Observatory’s long-run normal for 1 August is a mean maximum of **31.6°C**[1].

That historical anchor matters because Hong Kong frequently posts daytime highs in the low 30s in August, and the city has recently experienced unusually hot summers as well. The Observatory reported **August 2024** as exceptionally hot, with a mean daily maximum air temperature of **32.3°C**, while official coverage has also highlighted record-breaking August heat in recent years[7][4]. On most comparable datasets, a one-day high near or above 31°C is routine, so a zero per cent price implies either a stale market, a sharp assumption about an unseasonably cool day, or a very different contract interpretation than the headline suggests[1][7].

For traders, the main catalysts are the Observatory’s afternoon and evening updates, since Hong Kong’s maximum temperature usually becomes clearer only after the day’s peak has passed and the final daily extract is published. The key dependency is not a private forecast but the timing of the Observatory’s official post-processing and publication, because the market cannot settle until the final daily data appear on the climate archive page. Cross-platform comparison also matters: sportsbook-style temperature lines for Hong Kong in August typically sit around the high-20s to low-30s, while the prediction-market price here is anchored at the floor, leaving a large gap between implied certainty and the climatological baseline[6][12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.