Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contest is whether the **highest recorded temperature at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport** on 27 July lands in a given Celsius band, with the resolution coming from Wunderground’s daily history page for that station. In the live market, the crowd is not pricing a 0% yes; Polymarket’s range ladder currently has **39°C** as the frontrunner at **42%**, with **38°C** next at **31%**, so the implied distribution is centred in the upper 30s rather than near an extreme heat spike.[1]

Historically, late July in Chongqing is a hot, humid, and rain-prone period rather than a dry heatwave setting. Travel guides for the month put typical highs around **33°C**, note average July rainfall of **188 mm**, and describe frequent thunderstorms, which can cap daytime maxima even when the air mass is very warm.[2] That background makes the market’s present emphasis on **38–39°C** broadly consistent with an above-normal summer day, while still leaving room for cloud cover or convective rain to keep the airport reading below the top bins.[2][3]

For traders, the key catalyst is the actual airport observation sequence through the afternoon local time, because the contract resolves to the **day’s maximum** rather than a single forecast slot. The main dependencies are whether Chongqing sees early cloud-break heating, afternoon showers, or a thunderstorm complex that suppresses the peak; airport readings can also differ from city-centre temperatures because of local siting and timing. On the cross-platform view, the visible divergence is between the market’s detailed bin pricing and the broader “yes/no” framing implied by a near-zero headline probability on the contract page you provided, while the underlying weather references point to a plausible upper-30s outcome rather than a clear outlier.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.