Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport determining the settlement outcome. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any temperature band, suggesting either incomplete price discovery or that traders are awaiting additional context before committing capital.

Chengdu's July climate is characterised by intense monsoon-influenced heat and humidity. Historical data from the past decade shows maximum temperatures in late July typically ranging between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks near 37–38°C during particularly severe heat waves. The 2013 heat wave pushed readings to 40°C across Sichuan Province, though Chengdu proper remained slightly cooler. The 0% crowd probability appears disconnected from these seasonal norms, suggesting the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader participation to establish meaningful odds. Cross-platform comparison would reveal whether sportsbooks or other prediction markets have priced this event differently, though weather derivatives remain niche instruments outside specialist trading venues.

The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical weather database for Chengdu Shuangliu, which records observations from the official airport meteorological station. Traders should verify data availability closer to the settlement window, as occasional gaps in reporting can occur. China's meteorological authority (CMA) publishes daily forecasts and historical records; any significant deviation from typical July patterns would likely emerge in medium-range forecasts by mid-July 2026. The monsoon intensity and any tropical cyclone activity affecting southwestern China during that period will be the primary drivers of actual temperatures recorded on the day.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.