Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the market betting heavily that the highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport will land in the favoured range. The crowd-implied probability of 77% YES suggests strong confidence that conditions will align with typical mid-summer extremes for the region, where temperatures often exceed 35°C during July.

Historical data from Wunderground shows that Chengdu’s July highs frequently cluster between 33°C and 37°C, with 2022 and 2023 both recording peaks above 36°C at the same station. This pattern supports the current odds, as the settlement window closes at noon UTC—capturing the day’s maximum before evening cooling begins. Comparable cases from the past five years indicate that a 77% probability is consistent with the frequency of such highs in recent summers.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and local meteorological bulletins, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity could alter the peak. No major weather announcements are scheduled today, but the regional forecast from the China Meteorological Administration notes persistent high-pressure systems over Sichuan, which typically sustain elevated temperatures. Any deviation in this pattern would be the primary catalyst for a probability swing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.