Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is set to record its peak daily heat for 11 July 2026, with the market betting on whether temperatures will breach specific Celsius thresholds. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders view a record-breaking high as virtually impossible, despite the region entering its most fuggy month. Historical data confirms July is Chengdu’s hottest period, with average highs reaching 30°C and occasional spikes to 38°C, yet the 0% line implies a divergence from typical seasonal volatility seen in comparable Asian heat markets [3][5].

Comparable cases from recent years show Chengdu hitting 38.6°C in late August 2022, while July averages typically hover around 31°C, indicating that extreme peaks are rare but not unprecedented [6][10]. The zero probability may reflect a lack of liquidity or an analyst consensus that current atmospheric conditions favour cloud cover and rain, which are common in mid-July, rather than the clear-sky radiative heating required for record highs [3]. This contrasts with sportsbook-style lines on adjacent dates, where similar heat contracts often trade at 20–30% implied probability when basin geography is factored in.

Traders should monitor the hourly Wunderground feed for the Chengdu Shuangliu station, as settlement relies strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day [8]. Key catalysts include the release of the Sichuan meteorological bureau’s 24-hour forecast, which often adjusts for monsoon-driven cloud cover that suppresses peak temperatures [2]. Any sudden shift in wind patterns or precipitation schedules could invalidate the current 0% pricing, particularly if the middle ten days of July, known for their intense heat, deliver an unseasonal clear-sky event [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.