Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station is the settlement point here, and the key question is whether the day’s top reading lands in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius or gets capped by cloud and rain. The current crowd-implied **0% YES** is hard to square with the climatology for early August, when Chengdu normally sits near its warmest point of the year and average highs are around **30–31°C**; WeatherSpark puts the August 1 average daily high at **87°F** and notes highs rarely below **73°F** or above **94°F**. [2][6][9]

That said, the market is still pricing a cooler outcome than the historical norm, which is consistent with recent platform commentary that persistent rain and cloud cover have been holding highs near or below **28°C**. Comparable August cases in Chengdu show a wide spread: some guides cite typical highs around **29–34°C**, while broader climate sources allow for occasional extremes above **35°C** and even near **39–40°C** in exceptional years. That means a single wet or hazy day can shift the final airport reading materially, especially if convection is muted by overnight rain or widespread overcast. [1][3][8][10][16]

Traders should watch the local afternoon forecast, radar trends, and any airport-station observations before the settlement window closes, because the decisive move is usually the day’s maximum rather than the morning temperature. Chengdu’s August weather is typically humid and rainy, with travel guides explicitly warning that August sits in the rainy season and that umbrella-friendly conditions are common, so short-range forecast updates matter more than seasonal averages. The main comparison point across venues is therefore not whether the day will be warm, but whether the highest observed reading can clear the contract’s chosen Celsius band; with the market at 0% YES, prediction-market pricing appears to be leaning more aggressively to a capped high than the climate consensus would suggest. [3][6][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.