Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement of this contract depends on the maximum temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport, Busan's principal weather station, on 28 July 2026. The crowd has assigned zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with market initialisation. Busan's July climate is characterised by monsoon influence and high humidity; historical July maxima at Gimhae typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets warrants caution, as it may reflect incomplete market pricing rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms show meaningful divergence from sportsbook-style offerings. Traditional weather forecasting services, including the Korea Meteorological Administration, publish seasonal outlooks and monthly temperature distributions; July 2026 forecasts will become available in June. Traders should monitor whether any temperature range begins accumulating volume as the settlement date approaches, which would indicate genuine market formation. The absence of current odds on competing platforms prevents cross-venue comparison, though historical Busan July temperatures suggest mid-range brackets (30–33°C) carry the highest empirical frequency. Settlement relies entirely on Wunderground's historical data archive for Gimhae station, making data availability the primary operational risk.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on July 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.