Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s highest temperature for 1 August is usually in the mid-30s Celsius, with long-run August climate guides putting the city’s typical daytime peak around 30–31°C and some historical August extremes into the high 30s.[2][9][15][18] That matters for this contract because the market settles on the **single daily maximum** at Gimhae Intl Airport Station, not the month’s average, so a 0% YES price is only sensible if traders expect a notably cool, wet day rather than the sort of humid summer heat Busan often sees in early August.[1][2][9] Historical context from Busan climate tables also shows that 1 August can run warm enough to clear 35°C in some years, which is a useful reminder that the distribution is wide even before intra-day spikes are considered.[16][18]

For cross-platform comparison, sportsbook-style weather pricing in Korea is usually less visible than in US markets, so the more meaningful gap is between the contract’s 0% implied chance and the climatological backdrop, which would normally make a non-trivial tail above the upper temperature bands plausible on a summer day in Busan.[1][2][15] The key catalyst is the local forecast and any heat-driven adjustments in the morning-to-afternoon window before the settlement cutoff, with humidity, cloud cover and thunderstorm timing all capable of clipping the day’s high at the airport station.[2][4][9][15] Because the source is Wunderground’s station history page for Gimhae Intl Airport, traders will usually watch for the day’s hourly progression rather than a city-wide headline forecast, as coastal Busan and airport readings can diverge when sea breezes or rain bands move through.[1][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.