Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will determine which range this market resolves to. The National Weather Service uses this station as Atlanta's official weather observation point, making it the authoritative source for settlement. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all ranges, suggesting either a data lag or that traders have not yet engaged with this contract ahead of the settlement window closing at midday on the resolution date itself.

Atlanta's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical highs typically ranging between 88°F and 94°F. The city has recorded temperatures exceeding 95°F in July on roughly 15–20% of days over the past three decades, with extreme heat events (96°F or higher) occurring in fewer than 5% of July days. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the contract's recent creation rather than any expectation of unusually cool conditions, as traders have not yet positioned themselves across the available temperature bands.

The relevant catalyst is the National Weather Service's 10-day forecast issued in mid-July 2026, which will clarify whether an Atlantic ridge or tropical system influences Georgia's weather pattern. Recent summers have shown increased variability in peak temperatures due to shifting jet-stream positioning, though July 2026's specific conditions remain unknowable at present. Traders should monitor the NWS forecast window between 20–25 July for clarity on whether conditions will favour typical summer highs or anomalous extremes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.