National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolas Mejia and Martin Landaluce are set to meet in the National Bank Open first round, a matchup that pits ATP No. 131 against ATP No. 63. Tennis data sites have Landaluce rated the clear favourite: Tennis.com’s projected winner model gives him 74%, while betpawa lists 69% and Robinhood’s prediction market has been showing prices consistent with a roughly mid-70s chance for Landaluce, well below the market’s current 100% YES reading. [12][14][13]

The historical frame favours caution with a perfect 100% implied probability, because there is no head-to-head record and both players are still building top-level samples. Flashscore notes that Mejia is making his first Masters main-draw appearance and has not won a tour-level main-draw match on hard courts, while Landaluce has a 4-4 career record in Masters first-round matches and has gone 14-11 this season against players outside the top 100. [1] That profile is more consistent with a solid favourite than a near-certain outcome, especially in a best-of-three format where early-round ATP matches can turn quickly on serve runs and fitness. [1][9]

Traders should watch the order of play and any official scheduling changes, because the market only settles on the named winner if the match is actually completed within the settlement window; a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days reverts to 50-50 under the contract rules. Flashscore and live score boards show the match has been listed for Montreal/Canadian Open around 2–3 August timing, but the key catalyst is whether it is played as scheduled and finished without interruption. [1][15][12] If the event is moved, suspended or reworked because of weather or court backlog, the implied payout can shift materially even before a ball is struck.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.