Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs Cloud9 (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs Cloud9 (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-7.5) vs Cloud9 (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-8.5) vs Cloud9 (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-9.5) vs Cloud9 (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-11.5) vs Cloud9 (+11.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-5.5) vs Cloud9 (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs Cloud9 (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-6.5) vs Cloud9 (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs Cloud9 (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-5.5) vs Cloud9 (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-6.5) vs Cloud9 (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 71% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs Cloud9 (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-7.5) vs Cloud9 (+7.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-12.5) vs Cloud9 (+12.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: g2 esports vs cloud9 (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group omega stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between G2 Esports and Cloud9 in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 25 at 5:00PM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas … on Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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