How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs…

Name: UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko (Welterweight, Prelims)
Start: 2026-07-07T22:00:30.000Z
End: 2026-07-19T03:59:59.999Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	60%	40%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	60%	40%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	View on Polymarket →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
O/U 2.5 Rounds	60%
Fight to Go the Distance?	54%
O/U 0.5 Rounds	52%
O/U 1.5 Rounds	50%
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko	39%
Ko to win by KO/TKO?	25%
Fight won by KO/TKO?	23%
Fight won by submission?	22%
Lebosnoyani to win by KO/TKO?	17%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, ufc fight night: jean-paul lebosnoyani vs. seokhyeon ko (welterweight, prelims) stands at 60% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to "Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani" if Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani is officially declared the winner of the fight against Seokhyeon Ko at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 2.5 Rounds at 60% for "UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko (Welterweight, Prelims)".

O/U 2.5 Rounds 60% Other 40%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $82K.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?: Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporterand

Chris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

Trade UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon… on Kalshi vs Polymarket

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko (Welterweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon… on Kalshi vs Polymarket

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