World Cup Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is underway, with national teams competing across North America for the global title. Current crowd-implied probability for a specific team to win sits at 14% YES, a figure that diverges noticeably from major sportsbook lines where France leads at +370 odds (roughly 21% implied) and Spain follows at +500 (16.7% implied)[1][2]. While analyst consensus typically favours top European and South American nations like France, Spain, England, and Argentina, the prediction market’s 14% threshold suggests either a different team is being priced or a more cautious sentiment compared to the aggressive moneyline favourites seen at FanDuel and Fox Sports[1][2].

Historically, World Cup odds have shifted dramatically after group-stage results, as seen when Netherlands jumped from +1700 to +1300 and Mexico surged from +4500 to +3500 following commanding wins[1]. Comparable cases show that teams entering as long shots can quickly become contenders if they clinch their groups early, yet the 14% implied probability remains lower than the standard 16–21% range for top-tier favourites, indicating a potential misalignment or a specific bet on a fringe contender like the United States, whose odds have tightened to 33-1[4]. Traders should monitor upcoming knockout-stage announcements, group-final schedules, and any FIFA rulings on team eligibility, as these dependencies directly trigger immediate resolution to “No” if a team is eliminated[1]. Recent reporting confirms Brazil’s resurgence to top-six favouritism after a 3-0 victory over Scotland, illustrating how single-match outcomes can redefine the entire odds landscape[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews World Cup Winner across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.