Senegal vs. Iraq

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Senegal and Iraq takes place on Friday, 26 June 2026 at Toronto Stadium, with kick-off at 19:00 local time. This Group I fixture marks the conclusion of the stage for both nations, where Senegal enters as the clear favourite with a crowd-implied probability of 80% YES on their victory.

Historically, Senegal’s defensive resilience frames this high probability; the team has kept eight clean sheets in their last ten international wins, a trend that aligns with their current FIFA ranking of 15 compared to Iraq’s 57. In their last five head-to-head encounters, Senegal won four matches without losing, averaging 1.6 points per match while holding opponents to 2.0 points, suggesting a consistent offensive dominance that prediction markets are correctly pricing against Iraq’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Traders should monitor final line-up announcements and pre-match training reports, as both squads have released recent footage confirming full preparation ahead of the Toronto fixture. FOX Sports notes Iraq’s group schedule confirms this is their third and final group-stage game, meaning squad rotation or tactical shifts for knockout readiness could influence the outcome. ESPN’s live odds show Senegal at -200 for a win, diverging slightly from the 80% implied probability, indicating a modest but meaningful gap between sportsbook pricing and prediction-market consensus that warrants close observation.

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Methodology

This page reviews Senegal vs. Iraq across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.