Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Race to 20 | 98% |
| O/U 211.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 92% |
| O/U 213.5 | 91% |
| O/U 215.5 | 89% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 89% |
| O/U 207.5 | 87% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 19.5 | 86% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 86% |
| Heat vs. Kings | 83% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| O/U 217.5 | 82% |
| O/U 209.5 | 82% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 81% |
| 1H Moneyline | 81% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 81% |
| O/U 221.5 | 79% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 79% |
| Spread -3.5 | 78% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 9.5 | 77% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 76% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 76% |
| Spread -4.5 | 75% |
| O/U 219.5 | 75% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5 | 75% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 75% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| Spread -5.5 | 73% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 72% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 14.5 | 71% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| O/U 225.5 | 70% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 70% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 70% |
| O/U 223.5 | 69% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 9.5 | 68% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 9.5 | 68% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 68% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| Spread -7.5 | 66% |
| O/U 229.5 | 66% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 66% |
| Spread -8.5 | 63% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 61% |
| O/U 231.5 | 60% |
| Spread -9.5 | 57% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| O/U 233.5 | 56% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Spread -11.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| O/U 235.5 | 51% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 51% |
| Heat 1H O/U 62.5 | 51% |
| Kings O/U 110.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 51% |
| Heat O/U 136.5 | 51% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Kings 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Kings 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Kings 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Kings 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 128.5 | 50% |
| Kings 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 130.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 132.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 104.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 134.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 102.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Kings 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Keegan Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 49% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| O/U 236.5 | 49% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| O/U 237.5 | 46% |
| Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 44% |
| Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| O/U 238.5 | 43% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Team to Score First | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| O/U 239.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 42% |
| Keegan Murray: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Spread -15.5 | 40% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Spread -37.5 | 38% |
| O/U 240.5 | 38% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 124.5 | 38% |
| O/U 241.5 | 37% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| Spread -17.5 | 35% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| O/U 243.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 30% |
| Spread -19.5 | 29% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 245.5 | 28% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Spread -21.5 | 24% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 128.5 | 24% |
| O/U 247.5 | 23% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Spread -23.5 | 20% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 20% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| O/U 249.5 | 19% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 19% |
| Keegan Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Spread -18.5 | 18% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| O/U 251.5 | 16% |
| Spread -25.5 | 16% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 132.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 13% |
| O/U 253.5 | 13% |
| Spread -27.5 | 13% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 13% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Keegan Murray: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 263.5 | 11% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 11% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| Spread -29.5 | 10% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 134.5 | 9% |
| Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| O/U 257.5 | 8% |
| O/U 259.5 | 8% |
| O/U 255.5 | 7% |
| Spread -31.5 | 7% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| 1H O/U 136.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 6% |
| O/U 261.5 | 6% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Spread -33.5 | 5% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 5% |
| 1H O/U 138.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 4% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -35.5 | 3% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -12.5 | 2% |
| Race to 10 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| Spread -16.5 | 1% |
Market context
The Heat vs. Kings prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming NBA game between Heat and Kings, originally scheduled for Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Heat win, the market …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.3M.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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