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Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Five-platform snapshot of "Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 78% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 65% Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets 53% 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 53% Volume: $108K Liquidity: $1.5M Closes: 9 Aug 2026
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Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 78% 22% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 78% 22% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.578%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.565%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets53%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.553%
O/U 8.553%
NRFI50%
O/U 9.542%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.542%
Spread -1.541%
O/U 10.536%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.532%
Spread -1.531%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.530%
Spread -2.530%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.528%
Spread -2.522%
Extra Innings9%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, miami marlins vs. new york mets stands at 78% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets, scheduled for August 2 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 78% for "Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 78% Other 22%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $108K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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