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Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi vs Polymarket.

O/U 6.5 50% O/U 5.5 50% Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins 48% 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 47% Volume: $436K Liquidity: $286K Closes: 17 Jul 2026
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 6.550%
O/U 5.550%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins48%
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.547%
Spread -1.533%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.532%
O/U 7.531%
Spread -1.531%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.524%
O/U 8.523%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.521%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.521%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.514%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.513%
Extra Innings13%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.512%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.510%
NRFI0%

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins prediction market currently prices this outcome at 50% YES. In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 10 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the ga…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 6.5 at 50% for "Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins".

O/U 6.5 50% Other 50%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $436K.

Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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