🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogView on Polymarket →

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Comparison of odds and platforms for "UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi vs Polymarket.

O/U 0.5 Rounds 70% Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor 65% Holloway to win by KO/TKO? 53% Fight won by KO/TKO? 53% Volume: $497K Liquidity: $211K Closes: 12 Jul 2026
Open live market →
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 70% 30% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 70% 30% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5 Rounds70%
Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor65%
Holloway to win by KO/TKO?53%
Fight won by KO/TKO?53%
O/U 1.5 Rounds51%
O/U 3.5 Rounds45%
O/U 4.5 Rounds41%
O/U 2.5 Rounds32%
McGregor to win by KO/TKO?30%
Fight to Go the Distance?29%
Fight won by submission?12%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 70% YES probability for UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card). This market will resolve to "Max Holloway" if Max Holloway is officially declared the winner of the fight against Conor McGregor at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It w…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 0.5 Rounds at 70% for "UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)".

O/U 0.5 Rounds 70% Other 30%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $497K.

Methodology

This page reviews UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

Trade UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweig… on Kalshi vs Polymarket

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket.

See all markets →

Related Topics

Sports UFC Prediction Markets