Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse | 50% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf bali: sam ryan ziegann vs thanaphat boosarawongse. This market refers to the tennis match between Sam Ryan Ziegann and Thanaphat Boosarawongse in the ITF Men Bali, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 2:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sam …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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