Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Captain | 96% |
| Messi | 93% |
| Record | 89% |
| Euro | 83% |
| History | 77% |
| Bronze | 74% |
| Qatar / Russia | 72% |
| Zlatan / Ibrahimovic | 66% |
| VAR | 65% |
| Goal 75+ times | 62% |
| What a Save | 62% |
| Bench / Benches 7+ times | 57% |
| Handball | 57% |
| Comeback / Come Back | 57% |
| Nutmeg / Nutmegs | 53% |
| Golden Boot 3+ times | 52% |
| Dolphins | 47% |
| Equalizer | 46% |
| Hattrick / Hat Trick | 42% |
| Penalty Shootout | 42% |
| Foul 12+ times | 37% |
| Ronaldo | 37% |
| Own Goal | 36% |
| Maradona / Pelé | 36% |
| Vertical / Verticality | 35% |
| Gianni / Infantino | 34% |
| Crossbar | 30% |
| Powerade | 30% |
| Penalty Kick | 28% |
| GOAT / Greatest Of All Time | 24% |
| Lenovo | 24% |
| Red Card | 21% |
| Pressure 15+ times | 19% |
| Tenure | 17% |
| Legacy | 16% |
| Heavyweight | 16% |
| Shakira | 14% |
| Soccer | 11% |
| Shutout / Shut Out | 11% |
| Transition | 10% |
| Golden Ball | 9% |
| Trump | 8% |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 0% |
Market context
The What will the announcers say during France vs England World Cup Match? prediction market currently prices this outcome at 96% YES. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by any member of the official FOX broadcasting team during the English broadcast of the France vs England FIFA World Cup 2026 match on…
Methodology
We track What will the announcers say during France vs England World Cup Match? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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