Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sepsi OSK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sepsi OSK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara (-1.5) | 0% |
| Sepsi OSK (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara (-2.5) | 0% |
| Sepsi OSK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sepsi OSK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sepsi OSK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sepsi OSK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sepsi OSK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Sepsi OSK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Corvinul Hunedoara meet Sepsi OSK in a Romanian SuperLiga fixture that opened the day with a crowded market price of 0% for a “yes” on the “more markets” contract, which implies the platform is effectively treating this specific settlement path as unreachable or already ruled out. That sits awkwardly beside the football context: the sides have already produced tight, low-scoring meetings, including a 1-1 draw in the 2 August 2026 SuperLiga match referenced by match coverage and a 2025 league meeting won 2-0 by Corvinul, while pre-match stats pages have described Corvinul as compact at home and Sepsi as still looking blunt away.[4][12][16][18]
For traders comparing platforms, the key issue is whether the prediction market’s 0% reflects a technical settlement interpretation rather than a view on the football itself. External previews had framed this as a finely balanced fixture rather than a mismatch, noting both clubs entered the game on three points from two league matches and highlighting Sepsi’s lack of away goals, while the league’s own advance notes listed the match for 2 August at 18:30 and broadcast on PRIMA Sport and Digi Sport.[15][16] The main catalysts to watch are any official line-up announcements, late injury or suspension news, and confirmation of the exact match schedule and competition state, because a market priced at zero can move only if the contract’s wording leaves room for an unsettled or reclassified outcome.[3][6][15]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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