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LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 61% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 61% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? 53% Match Winner 52% Volume: $105K Liquidity: $893K Closes: 25 Jul 2026
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LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
61% 39% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
61% 39% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?53%
Match Winner52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Game 1 Winner51%
Game 2 Winner51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
O/U 2.5 Games49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Any Player Penta Kill37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Any Player Penta Kill37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor35%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor34%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors33%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors33%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)27%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 61% probability to lol: invictus gaming vs weibo gaming (bo3) - lpl group nirvana. This market refers to the LoL match between Invictus Gaming and Weibo Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for July 25 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if I…

Methodology

We track LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
and

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