How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL R…

Name: LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
Start: 2026-07-19T08:13:32.451Z
End: 2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	54%	46%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	54%	46%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	View on Polymarket →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Game 1 Winner	54%
Match Winner	54%
Game 2 Winner	53%
Any Player Penta Kill	51%
O/U 2.5 Games	50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor	50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon	50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors	50%
Any Player Quadra Kill	50%
Any Player Penta Kill	50%
Odd/Even Total Kills	50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor	50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon	50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors	50%
Any Player Quadra Kill	50%
Any Player Penta Kill	50%
Odd/Even Total Kills	50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor	50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon	50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors	50%
Any Player Quadra Kill	50%
Odd/Even Total Kills	50%
First Blood in Game 1?	50%
First Blood in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	50%
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5)	30%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?	0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 54% YES probability for LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season. This market refers to the LoL match between FURIA Esports and LOS in the CBLOL Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 25 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Espo…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporterand

Chris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season on Kalshi vs Polymarket

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