Norway vs. France - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On Friday, 26 June 2026, Norway and France meet in Boston for a pivotal Group I fixture at the FIFA World Cup, with the match kicking off at 3 p.m. ET. The prediction market on the exact final score after 90 minutes currently implies a 9% probability for the listed outcome, a figure that diverges meaningfully from major sportsbooks, which price the same score closer to 6–7%, while analyst consensus leans toward a 10% likelihood based on recent training data and line-up hints.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages have shown volatility when top-tier nations face lower-ranked opponents; Norway’s four past World Cup appearances (1938, 1994, 1998, and now 2026) contrast sharply with France’s consistent elite status, yet their head-to-head record since 2010 is split evenly, with each side winning one game, suggesting that narrow scorelines are plausible despite the ranking gap.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up confirmations, particularly the partnership between Mbappé and Olise for France and Haaland’s fitness for Norway, as both teams have completed final training sessions ahead of the fixture [2][7]. Any delay in official squad announcements or changes to the starting XI could shift implied probabilities significantly, especially given the tight settlement window ending 19:00 UTC on the match day [1]. Recent previews from CBS Sports HQ highlight the battle for top-of-the-group positioning as the key catalyst influencing score expectations [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. France - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.