France vs. Spain - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal between France and Spain kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, 14 July at Dallas Stadium, with the market resolving strictly on the 90-minute regulation score. Spain enters as the only team in the tournament to have conceded zero goals, having defeated Belgium 2–1 in the quarter-final thanks to an 88th-minute winner from Mikel Merino [1]. France, meanwhile, boasts a perfect 6–0 record through six matches, showcasing absolute dominance before facing their historic rival [5].

Historically, Spain leads the all-time head-to-head with 18 wins against France’s 13 across 38 matches, though recent World Cup encounters under Luis de la Fuente have seen Spain meet France in five semifinals [3][11]. The current 8% implied probability for a specific exact score aligns with the rarity of such outcomes in high-stakes knockout games where defensive solidity often prevails; Spain’s goalless run suggests a low-scoring affair, while France’s attacking efficiency could disrupt that narrative. Sportsbooks typically price exact scores in semifinals between 5–12%, making this 8% line consistent with cross-platform consensus, though some prediction markets show slight divergence favouring tighter margins like 1–0 or 1–1.

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and any late injury updates for Kylian Mbappé, who recently scored his 20th career World Cup goal against Morocco [7]. The match is broadcast on FOX, with coverage beginning one hour before kickoff, and any postponement will keep the market open until completion [2]. With the settlement window closing at 19:00 UTC on 14 July, the primary catalyst remains the pre-match tactical setup, particularly whether Spain maintains their defensive discipline against France’s perfect tournament run.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews France vs. Spain - Exact Score across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.