Egypt vs. IR Iran - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the final Group G match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup between Egypt and Iran, scheduled for 11:00 PM ET on 26 June. Egypt leads the group but faces a scenario where poor results could drop them to third place, while Iran seeks a crucial victory to improve their standing. The prediction market “More Markets” currently implies a 17% probability that the game will produce additional matches beyond the standard 90 minutes, a figure that diverges sharply from sportsbook consensus.

Historical parallels in World Cup knockout or decisive group matches show that low-scoring, cautious encounters often dominate when teams are risk-averse, particularly when one side already holds a group lead. In comparable cases, the probability of extra time or additional matches has rarely exceeded 20%, aligning closely with the current 17% implied probability. However, sportsbooks heavily juice the under markets, pricing the draw at 2.63 and anticipating a sluggish, low-risk encounter, which suggests analysts expect minimal goal activity and thus a low likelihood of extra matches[4].

Traders should monitor the final pre-match odds movements, particularly for Over/Under 1.5 and 2.5 goals, as these lines reflect real-time expectations of goal volume. A recent analysis from CBS Sports notes that expert Eimer is leaning Over 1.5 total goals at -172, indicating a potential shift toward higher goal expectations that could increase the chance of extra matches[3]. Additionally, watch for any late injury announcements or tactical changes from either side, as these dependencies directly influence the likelihood of a draw or extended play. The main total on this game is set at 1.5 goals, with the over at -170, a line that may tighten if early momentum builds[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.